FORECAST CIRCULATION MODEL

The forecast model uses the output of the most recent nowcast model as initial conditions. The open boundary water levels are provided by a combination of the tidal and non-tidal components. The tidal component is composed of the signal from 37 harmonic constituents, while the non-tidal component is comprised from the NWS TDL SSGM model output for the Anna Maria node. Forecasted winds from the NWS NGM MOS provide the surface wind stress. Salinity and temperature profiles at the open boundary as well as river inflows are held constant during the 24 hour forecast simulations. A new 24 hour forecast simulation is conducted every four hours. The forecasts are initiated at 35 minutes after the hour of 0000 0400 1200 1600 2000 EST. All model time stamps are relative to GMT (EST + 5 hours) .